2025 Economic Summit Recap: Real Estate Outlook for Reston & Northern Virginia

On June 12, 2025, the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors® (NVAR) hosted its annual Economic Summit — and the message was clear: we’re living in a time of transition. While uncertainty remains high, there are key insights that help us better understand the real estate landscape moving into the second half of the year.

A Time of Transition — and Opportunity

We heard a lot of words like uncertainty, reskilled, and unprecedented — and rightfully so. From labor market shifts to global instability, this is not business as usual. But amid the unpredictability, opportunity exists — especially in a market as resilient as Northern Virginia.

Regional Real Estate Highlights

Despite national volatility, our local housing market shows strength in all the right places:

• Low housing supply continues to insulate our area, even as national trends soften.

• Sales remain stable, and we’re still outperforming many parts of the country where homes may take 60–90 days to go under contract.

• Condos are most sensitive to economic changes, but single-family homes remain in demand.

• We may begin to see effects from early retirements and federal restructuring (like the FBI and USDA relocations) in late 2025.

• One rate cut may still be on the table, but interest rates are expected to hover in the mid-6% range.

40% of the region’s economy is tied to the federal government, but our highly educated population is also highly adaptable. Many federal workers are positioned to pivot quickly — 1/3 may transition directly into new roles, and another 1/3 could be reskilled.

For those seeking career mobility, the Work in FFX NOVA site currently lists over 47,000 jobs across tech, healthcare, defense, and more.

National Real Estate Trends to Watch

Key takeaways from Dr. Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist at NAR:

• Cash purchases are at an all-time high (31%), reflecting wealth concentration among older, repeat buyers.

• First-time buyers have hit a record low, now just 24% of the market — down from 40% in past decades.

• The average first-time buyer is now 38 years old, up from 28 in 1980, which translates to a decade less of wealth-building through real estate.

• Repeat buyers are older too — now averaging 61 years old. These buyers are often cash-heavy, less flexible, and balancing responsibilities like aging parents and boomerang children.

• There’s still a shortage of over 5 million homes nationally, and new construction isn’t keeping up.

What It Means for Buyers & Sellers in Northern Virginia

Even with headwinds, Northern Virginia real estate remains strong, especially in markets like Reston where demand stays high and inventory is tight.

Whether you're navigating a career shift, considering upsizing, or downsizing ahead of retirement, staying informed about both local and national trends is key.

Final Thoughts

Yes, we’re in a period of transition. But with strong fundamentals, a flexible workforce, and historically high equity levels, Northern Virginia is well-positioned to weather economic shifts.

If you're curious how this market impacts your next move — whether you're buying, selling, or investing — let’s talk strategy.

📞 Reach out anytime — we’re here to help!

Annie: (202) 841-7601
Nikki: (703) 615-2663

Whether you're ready to list, looking for your next home, or just want to make sense of the market, The Busy Blondes have your back.

Let me know when you're ready to plug in your presentation graphics or if you'd like this formatted for email or web upload!